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Gibson Long Term Tanker Market Outlook Launched

This study covers the outlook for the tanker market over the next five years. The findings are based on the forecast balance between future tanker supply and demand, following the detailed analysis of fleet prospects, world crude production and crude and products trade. The report discusses in detail market developments in all tanker segments above 25,000 deadweight and conclusions are made on the future direction of freight rates up to 2022. Our methodology of calculating tanker owner’s daily earnings captures the highest possible returns based on current and forecasted market conditions. 

Tanker trading conditions deteriorated in the 2nd half of 2016, most notably in the product tanker market, where spot earnings across all clean tanker categories frequently declined to or even below the level of fixed operating expenses. Crude tanker earnings also moved to lower levels; however, on an annual average basis, TCE returns still remained generally healthy in 2016, well above the lows witnessed in 2009/2013.

August 2017 update: This report has been revised to reflect the IMO’s decision to delay the implementation of the ballast water management convention (BWMC), and other recent developments affecting the tanker market. Owing to the high cost of retrofitting a tanker to comply with the BWMC, the convention has major implications for tanker scrapping activity, which in turn affects the freight rates and tanker earnings. As a result, this report has been extensively revised the reflect the fact that, by delaying the BWMC, scrapping activity will be lower than previously estimated, and thus freight rates may be lower than previously estimated.


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