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Tanker Market Report 19.04.24

Looking into 2025

Earlier this month the IEA released its monthly oil report, offering for the first time their analysis of how oil markets could shape up in 2025. The agency expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mbd next year, just marginally below 1.2 mbd expected in 2024.

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Tanker Market Report 19.04.24

Looking into 2025

Earlier this month the IEA released its monthly oil report, offering for the first time their analysis of how oil markets could shape up in 2025. The agency expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mbd next year, just marginally below 1.2 mbd expected in 2024.

Tanker Market Report 12.04.24

Turkish Delight?

After just over a year of being offline, discussions about restarting the 450 kbd KRG pipeline remains at an impasse. Despite months of negotiations since March 2023, insufficient progress has been made to restart flows from Northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Political tension between the Federal Iraqi Government, the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey have blocked previous attempts at finding a resolution. For the tanker market, particularly the Aframax sector, this resulted in the loss of approximately 400 kbd of exports out of Ceyhan, reducing the supply of crude cargoes in the Mediterranean, forcing owners to look for other opportunities.

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Tanker Market Report 19.04.24

Looking into 2025

Earlier this month the IEA released its monthly oil report, offering for the first time their analysis of how oil markets could shape up in 2025. The agency expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mbd next year, just marginally below 1.2 mbd expected in 2024.

Tanker Market Report 12.04.24

Turkish Delight?

After just over a year of being offline, discussions about restarting the 450 kbd KRG pipeline remains at an impasse. Despite months of negotiations since March 2023, insufficient progress has been made to restart flows from Northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Political tension between the Federal Iraqi Government, the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey have blocked previous attempts at finding a resolution. For the tanker market, particularly the Aframax sector, this resulted in the loss of approximately 400 kbd of exports out of Ceyhan, reducing the supply of crude cargoes in the Mediterranean, forcing owners to look for other opportunities.

Tanker Market Report 05.04.24

New Frontier

Much of the focus over the past few years has been on the impressive ramp up of oil production in Guyana where production is on track to rise to 800kbd next year from zero in 2019. Yet in the years ahead, new frontiers in the oil market could emerge and one such region with potential is Namibia.

Tanker Market Report 22.03.24

Relentless Regulations

With the shipping markets still getting used to the Emissions trading scheme (ETS), the next major piece of EU legislation is on the horizon. FuelEU serves as a critical piece within the intricate puzzle of the Fit for 55 regulations. While the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Alternative Fuels Infrastructure (AFIR) focus on creating a new sustainable fuel landscape in the EU over the long term, the ETS and the Energy Taxation Directive (ETD) aim for rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Tanker Market Report 15.03.24

On the Margin

Refining margins across the world surged to record levels in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although margins have declined since then, they have generally remained healthy, even in Europe, where the structural shortage of middle distillates prevailed over the competitive disadvantage of relatively simple and ageing refineries compared to large and sophisticated plants in the Middle East and Asia.

Tanker Market Report 08.03.24

Grey Shift

With OPEC+ set to roll over existing production cuts into Q2, the case of Russia is increasingly more complex. On top of a tightening sanctions regime, Russia is expected to make additional cuts of 471kbd on top of existing cuts of 500kbd, while current output levels stand at 9.5mbd for February according to government officials. These cuts are expected to include both crude and products and should help to keep Russian oil pricing firmly above the G7 price cap, particularly given higher benchmark brent prices. This comes as the Russian market is becoming increasingly more difficult for many players to get involved with; as sanctions enforcement increases, things could become even trickier going forward.

Tanker Market Report 01.03.24

A Passage to the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal stands as one of the world’s most vital intercontinental waterways, playing an important role in facilitating global trade, particularly along the routes connecting the Americas and Asia. However, in recent years, a combination of climate change and structural factors have posed significant challenges to the maritime trade passing through this essential artery.

Tanker Market Report 23.02.24

The 9 Million Barrel Question

Whilst there is significant debate as to the strength of long-term oil demand growth, there is little debate as to where much of that growth will come from; India. The world’s most populous country sits far behind China in terms of its oil demand per capita, underscoring how much potential remains. Indeed, the country is set to be the largest single source of demand growth between now and 2030. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently announced a plan to raise domestic refining capacity to 9mbd by 2030; however, for this goal to be achieved, significant new investment will be required.

Tanker Market Report 16.02.24

How Green is Green?

Green methanol is often touted as one of the leading alternative sustainable fuels for the maritime sector. It is relatively easy to produce, most ports around the world can handle it, and being liquid at ambient temperature, it is cheaper to store than other alternative fuels like LNG or Ammonia which require cryogenic tanks. Nevertheless, it’s important to also evaluate its competitiveness against conventional fuels.

Tanker Market Report 09.02.24

Red Sea – Key Tanker Flows

Hopes of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which potentially could help to improve the security situation in the Red Sea have been dashed in recent days, with further attacks reported on commercial vessels and Israel rejecting Hamas’s proposed ceasefire terms. As of now, there is very little change to tanker traffic transiting through the Red Sea compared to two weeks ago. Vessels with significant recent Russian trading history continue to transit en masse, both laden and in ballast, seemingly unaffected by escalating tensions and despite three attacks on vessels with connections to Russia (or Russian cargo). The majority of conventional tonnage continues to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope (COGH).

Tanker Market Report 02.02.24

Stepping Back

Despite a partial lifting of sanctions against Venezuela back in October last year, the US is now set to reimpose sanctions on the country’s oil industry in April, due to insufficient progress towards holding free and fair presidential elections; a key condition of sustained sanctions relief. The original deal which was to last for a period of six months, saw the return of Venezuelan crude to the mainstream market and an increase in cargo liftings by largely non dark fleet tankers as traders and charterers became confident in lifting Venezuelan barrels once again.

Tanker Market Report 26.01.24

The Long Way Round

As Europe steps into spring having survived its first full winter without Russian diesel, the Continents fuel supply is once again disrupted. Ultimately, the world appears sufficiently supplied with refined products, however, with freight costs, delivery times and product prices all being dramatically impacted by the Red Sea crisis, the clean trade is set for another shift, even if it proves to be just a temporary one.

Tanker Market Report 19.01.24

Beating Expectations

Back in January 2023, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) envisaged US crude production growing by 550kbd over the course of the year. The reality however has beaten all expectations, with the country’s output increasing by 1.01 mbd according to the latest assessments. There also was strong growth in Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) production, which gained by 490kbd YoY. The surge in output has been primarily underpinned by smaller companies financed by private capital, driven by higher oil prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine; whilst bigger, public companies displayed an element of discipline, perhaps not willing to repeat the mistakes of the past, when they ramped up production during a high oil price environment which ultimately contributed to lower prices.

Tanker Market Report 12.01.24

Force Majeure

The Libyan oil sector is no stranger to output disruptions but this week has seen the North African producer back in the spotlight, with Libya’s NOC declaring force majeure at the 300kbd Sharara oil field due to a resurgence in local protests over fuel prices and a reported lack of economic opportunities. This comes after a series of production shutdowns in the wake of the Libyan Civil War, with the country’s oil infrastructure often being a target between the various factions.

Tanker Market Report 05.01.24

A Year Ahead

12 months ago, we titled our closing report of 2022 ‘What the hell just happened?’. 2023 has not seen the same degree of volatility but has still been a turbulent year for the oil and tanker markets, with robust earnings for all sectors owing to strong demand growth, tight supply and ongoing trading inefficiencies caused by geopolitical and climate related events.

Tanker Market Report 15.12.23

2023 Turmoil

12 months ago, we titled our closing report of 2022 ‘What the hell just happened?’. 2023 has not seen the same degree of volatility but has still been a turbulent year for the oil and tanker markets, with robust earnings for all sectors owing to strong demand growth, tight supply and ongoing trading inefficiencies caused by geopolitical and climate related events.

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