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Tanker Market Report 18.07.25

The Tiger Cubs Roar

In the past decade, oil demand has been defined by rapid growth in the Chinese economy, with the country responsible for 60% of global growth. However, with the outlook for Chinese oil demand changing, the structure of global oil trade is also shifting. A combination of factors is contributing to plateauing Chinese demand, but the biggest factor is the significant penetration and widespread adoption of electric vehicles. In addition, there is an increasing uptake of LNG powered and electric trucks.

Latest reports

Tanker Market Report 18.07.25

The Tiger Cubs Roar

In the past decade, oil demand has been defined by rapid growth in the Chinese economy, with the country responsible for 60% of global growth. However, with the outlook for Chinese oil demand changing, the structure of global oil trade is also shifting. A combination of factors is contributing to plateauing Chinese demand, but the biggest factor is the significant penetration and widespread adoption of electric vehicles. In addition, there is an increasing uptake of LNG powered and electric trucks.

Tanker Market Report 11.07.25

Orderbooks, Old Ships, and Sanctions

Tanker ordering activity for vessels above 25,000 dwt has dropped sharply this year, with total orders around 110 units. This decline reflects a mix of regulatory and market uncertainties, along with persistently high newbuilding prices. Current prices remain just below the multiyear peaks seen last year, while shipyards face little pressure to offer significant discounts. 2025 orders are well below the nearly 850 tankers contracted in 2023 and 2024, and broadly in line with the limited ordering activity seen between 2016 and 2022. The only segment where fresh contracting has remained relatively robust is Suezmaxes, with 36 tankers ordered so far this year.

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Tanker Market Report 18.07.25

The Tiger Cubs Roar

In the past decade, oil demand has been defined by rapid growth in the Chinese economy, with the country responsible for 60% of global growth. However, with the outlook for Chinese oil demand changing, the structure of global oil trade is also shifting. A combination of factors is contributing to plateauing Chinese demand, but the biggest factor is the significant penetration and widespread adoption of electric vehicles. In addition, there is an increasing uptake of LNG powered and electric trucks.

Tanker Market Report 11.07.25

Orderbooks, Old Ships, and Sanctions

Tanker ordering activity for vessels above 25,000 dwt has dropped sharply this year, with total orders around 110 units. This decline reflects a mix of regulatory and market uncertainties, along with persistently high newbuilding prices. Current prices remain just below the multiyear peaks seen last year, while shipyards face little pressure to offer significant discounts. 2025 orders are well below the nearly 850 tankers contracted in 2023 and 2024, and broadly in line with the limited ordering activity seen between 2016 and 2022. The only segment where fresh contracting has remained relatively robust is Suezmaxes, with 36 tankers ordered so far this year.

Tanker Market Report 04.07.25

All about US

Almost every year since 2020 has been a rollercoaster ride, and the first six months of 2025 were no different with a wide range of factors influencing the tanker markets. The return of President Trump has undoubtedly been the catalyst for much, but not all the volatility and uncertainty. Changes are awash from geopolitics, international relations, trade, conflict, regulation, and decarbonisation among others, with the outlook arguably as uncertain as it has been at any point in the past 5 years. In this report we recap on some of the key topics and developments so far this year.

Tanker Market Report 27.06.25

A Longer View

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released their annual report detailing a medium-term outlook for oil markets. Oil 2025 has reiterated last year’s assertion that global oil demand will peak in 2029, only slightly changing the forecast for 2030 from 105.4 mbd to 105.5 mbd, with the trend gradually slowing and reaching contraction in 2030. Most of this growth is anticipated to take place in the Asia Pacific, specifically in India, which is projected to grow by 1 mbd between 2024 and 2030, and Southeast Asia, with Indonesia leading the pack at 470 kbd. This growth is primarily made up of demand increases in petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel. Elsewhere, the IEA sees demand growing in South and Central America and Africa by 600 and 800 kbd, respectively. Relative growth rates in Africa are projected to be the strongest globally, largely following population and GDP growth patterns. This year, global oil demand is seen at 103.8 mbd, an 800 kbd increase from 2024.

Tanker Market Report 20.06.25

The 18th Blow

While the international community remains fixated on the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, the European Union is progressing its 18th package of sanctions on Russia, with the implementation expected to be decided upon next week. Although less immediately dramatic, several of the proposed measures could have significant implications for the tanker market. Chief among them are expanded measures against the shadow fleet, a ban on imports of refined products made from Russian crude, and a proposed reduction in the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.

Tanker Market Report 13.06.25

Tense Times

Tensions between Israel and Iran are nothing new, but they came to a head overnight. The situation remains fluid and at this point in time could turn in a number of different directions. Israel has been clear that further attacks are planned. The United States, claimed not to be involved in supporting the attacks, but has warned that more intense strikes are planned, unless Iran agrees to a nuclear deal. Talks with Iran are/were planned for this coming weekend, but only time will tell if those talks do indeed proceed. So, with all that in mind, how might the tanker markets be impacted?

Tanker Market Report 06.06.25

Refinery developments

Total global refining capacity has been in an upwards trend for a long time, and years with declines are rare, barring those caused by overarching events such as the COVID pandemic. It is possible that this trend will soon change. Refinery closures are accelerating in the Atlantic Basin, driven by lower margins largely caused by structural demand developments. In recent months, global refining margins have been surprisingly strong, though maintenance activity and the closure of refineries are partly responsible. East of Suez, refining capacity is still growing, though at a slower pace than in previous years, whilst some capacity rationalisation is also prevalent in China.

Tanker Market Report 30.05.25

Mixed Signals

The crude tanker market experienced a disappointingly weak first quarter, with the anticipated strong winter market failing to materialize. However, the market showed signs of a rebound in Q2, though this seems to be faltering. This raises the question, was this merely a temporary blip, or did fundamental shifts drive this improvement?

Tanker Market Report 23.05.25

Deal or no Deal?

Since April the US and Iran have been engaging in “direct” negotiations over curbs to Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. So far 4 rounds of talks have been held, with a 5th round scheduled for today. Talks between Iran and the European Union also took place last week in Turkey. So, with both sides still talking, can a deal be done?

Tanker Market Report 16.05.25

Aging Fleet

The tanker fleet is aging. The last couple of years have seen few deliveries and little scrapping as a strong market and a growing dark fleet has kept many vessels from being beached. Second-hand asset values surged in the years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as especially older vessels have found ready buyers in the dark fleet and sanctioned markets with prices far exceeding scrap values. With 51% of the total tanker fleet of 25,000 dwt and above aged 15 years and older and 22% above the age of 20, it begs the question of how aging has impacted fleet utilisation. Part of the answer lies in dark and sanctioned fleet activity, with 93% of the dark fleet aged 15 and over, and 64% aged 20 years and older.

Tanker Market Report 09.05.25

Carbon Pricing

Undoubtedly, the most significant development at MEPC 83 was the establishment of the IMO Net Zero Framework, which introduced a GHG Fuel Intensity (GFI) standard and economic measures, such as a two-tier carbon trading system requiring higher emitters to offset their CO₂ emissions while rewarding ships that operate with low or zero emissions.

Tanker Market Report 02.05.25

Extreme Uncertainty

Every year since 2020, as analysts we have complained that the outlook for the market has never been so uncertain. And every year, the level of uncertainty “Trumps” the previous year. 2025 is no different, with so many different factors having the potential to pull the tanker markets in a plethora of different directions.

Tanker Market Report 25.04.25

Section 301 Saga

After weeks of speculation, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) finally published their much-anticipated action plan to address alleged Chinese maritime dominance. Most international shipping companies were relieved to see almost all measures were significantly watered down. Notably, the “fleet composition” requirement has been dropped, so if an owner has Chinese built vessels, it will not impact their non-Chinese built vessels. However, the latest plan still has considerable ramifications for tankers.

Tanker Market Report 11.04.25

Price Pressure

With all the turmoil in the global financial markets, oil prices have come under pressure not seen since the pandemic. Prices began their heavy slide last week and fell 18% to a four-year low, before recovering to $64/bbl, as Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs (except China) for 90 days. US trade policy was of course the primary driver, but perhaps most surprising of all, was the timing of OPEC+’s decision to accelerate production increases at a time when the demand outlook is turning increasingly bearish. Prices are likely to remain volatile as markets react to ever changing US trade policy, but for now remain significantly off where they began the year.

Tanker Market Report 04.04.25

Liberation Day

On Wednesday the 2nd of April, the much-anticipated Liberation Day came to pass. US President Donald Trump made true his threats and passed a 10% tariff on all imports from all trading partners from the 5th of April. Additionally, reciprocal tariffs coming into force on the 9th of April will be applied to specific trading partners designed to match tariffs those trading partners impose on US imports. For example, Trump announced a 20% fee on the European Union, 24% on Japan, 27% on India, and 34% on China. All these tariffs are on top of already existing tariffs implemented by the current administration. Crucially, the White House clarified that crude oil and refined products will not be subject to the additional 10% tariffs. Notable for tanker markets is also that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will continue as they are, with both Canadian and Mexican oil and products trading into the US tariff free, so little rerouting is expected to occur here yet. As with all announced tariffs, this may be subject to change.

Tanker Market Report 28.03.25

Power Shift

Global oil demand growth slowed markedly in 2024, rising by just 0.8% year-on-year – less than half the growth rate recorded in 2023, according to the IEA Global Energy Review. A significant factor behind this slowdown was the accelerating uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). In particular, road transport oil demand in China fell 1.8% year-on-year amid rapid expansion of EVs and natural gas-powered trucks.

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