Clean Barrels

In the summer of last year, the EU published its 18th sanctions package, announcing a ban on imports of all products refined from Russian crude, which finally came into effect this week. Initially, the legislation appeared to suggest a blanket ban on imports from refineries which process Russian crude oil. However, further clarification under the 19th sanctions package confirmed that if a refinery can fully segregate the refining of Russian crude from non-Russian sources, then import from the non-Russian supplied part of the refinery can be allowed. Otherwise, if Russian crude oil cannot be segregated and processed separately by the refinery, but evidence is provided by the third party that no Russian crude has been received or processed in the ‘production line’ over the past 60 days prior to the bill of lading date of the cargo at issue, import into the EU is allowed. Further, net exporters of crude, such as the major Middle East producers, are exempt from the EU restrictions.

With the 60-day cutoff in mind, refineries which cannot separate crude intake would have to have changed their import patterns before November 21st to continue exporting refined products to the EU after the ban came into place. So far, CPP flows into the EU27 have seen little change since November 21st, with flows from relevant refiners in India and Turkey declining only slightly. Only a minor share of EU CPP imports is derived from Russian crude. In 2025, according to the IEA, 12% of CPP flows into EU27 originated from Russian crude, around 300kbd, with 80% coming from India and 15% from Turkey.

On the crude side, notable changes have taken place. Imports of Russian crude into India since November 21st have fallen by around 400kbd compared to the imports earlier in 2025. Major Indian refiners have altered their intake patterns, with the sanctioned Vadinar refinery taking around 90kbd more in the last 60 days compared to the rest of 2025, and refineries which export notable volumes to the EU27 countries sharply decreasing their intake. However, many other factors have affected Indian imports in this period, with US sanctions, tariffs, and energy deals all playing a role. Indian imports of crude from other sources have more than replaced Russian volumes, with cargoes from especially the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America increasing, mostly benefitting VLCCs. In Turkey, refineries have chosen different approaches, with some reducing their imports of Russian crude, whilst others have eliminated them entirely.

More Russian barrels have ended up as floating storage in recent months, contributing to crude on water reaching the highest levels since 2020. Chinese imports of Russian crude have risen in the same period, and China remains the importer of last resort. However, as Russian crude pricing has declined, some Indian refiners have signalled their intention to increase their intake of unsanctioned volumes. The share of mainstream, price cap compliant Russian crude exports from Western terminals has also recently risen, with Suezmaxes still playing a major role here.

Overall, the EU ban of products refined from Russian crude seems to have been absorbed by the market, with few notable changes on the clean side. Many different factors have affected crude volumes, though refiners appear to be taking care to separate Russian crude intake to protect export options to the EU.

Russian crude imports into India by port (kbd)

Crude Oil

East

The AG VLCC market started the week with reasonable enquiry, as charterers began to look to cover early February stems. Freight rates held firm throughout, supported by positive owner sentiment, although a fair amount of tonnage remained available. Early February cargoes were focused on short voyages, and the impact on rate direction remains to be seen. Midweek activity eased slightly, with limited fresh enquiry emerging and a healthy tonnage list available for first decade positions. Despite this, freight levels remained stable, with some improvement noted as momentum briefly picked up. Toward the end of the week, the pace of enquiry slowed again, though rates continued to hold steady. overall, the AG VLCC market closes the week stable, with sentiment constructive and attention now turning to whether enquiry builds further as February coverage progresses.

The Suezmax market in the East has seen a good level of enquiry this week, and the list on the early side remains tight. For AG/West rates are approximately 140 x ws80 via C/C, with high levels still being seen in WAF. A lot of those who want to reposition West are still making sense of ballasting. The list has been stripped of ships willing East this week, and next week it seems likely that owners may be able to push the market back up to a 130 x ws165 sort of level for AG/East.

The week ends with the Asia Aframax market firm, as a flurry of first-decade February cargoes injected fresh momentum into an already thin tonnage list, lifting TCEs to around $45,000/day. Rates continued to conclude above last done, with owners firmly in control given the strength of current fundamentals. Supply has been further reduced by steady AG and Vancouver demand, which continues to pull tonnage away from the region. With overall ton-mile demand on the rise and some requirements yet to be covered, owners are expected to maintain pressure and capitalise on limited availability in the near term. We close the week assessing Indo/Up at 80 × ws190.

West Africa

A steady flow of enquiry throughout the week for VLCCs in WAF, with a mixture of under the radar activity/cargoes being worked on the surface. Freight levels largely held firm, supported by steady to optimistic owner sentiment and the influence of firmer trends in the AG. As the week progressed, the pace of enquiry slowed further, leaving the market largely untested. While a few cargoes continued to seek coverage, the lack of fresh enquiry made it difficult to clearly assess direction, with sentiment holding more on tone than confirmed fixtures. The WAF VLCC market closes the week under pressure as fixtures ws107.5 give a visual confirmation of the market facing downward pressure.

Suezmaxes in West Africa have firmed in the latter half of this week despite showing signs of faltering early on. Rates pushing up on the other side of the Atlantic is going to push those ships coming free on the continent into fixing from the States instead. For TD20 owners will be looking to push over 130 x ws152.5 in early trading next week. The premium to head East today is still around 7.5 points. With such good returns available, there is temptation across the board for owners to lock in a long run.

Mediterranean

On Suezmaxes in the Med, TD6 has returned after a spate of cancelled stems, last-done of 135 x ws200 seems as though it is going to be difficult to repeat, especially for those who require non-Russian history. With SPM 3 due back online next week owners are expecting more stems on early dates and won’t be in a rush to fix. Libya/East has seen greater levels of enquiry this week and there are still cargoes outstanding that are struggling to cover. We estimate via cape owners are going to be looking for something around the $7m mark.

Aframaxes in the west are riding on the crest of a wave and it has been no different in the Mediterranean this week. A perfect storm of weather delays, ullage delays, geopolitical uncertainty and confidence in vanilla Venezuelan volumes has impacted the markets and owners have been in the driving seat. Firstly, the Atlantic basin has seen such bad weather that owners have been unwilling to transit which has reduced the availability of tonnage in the States – this has caused a rate spike and then owners in the UKC and Med regions have been able to cling onto that as a sentiment drive. Coupled with this, ships are tied up outside ports unable to berth and so charterers have had to pay premiums for safe tonnage. As we approach the close XMED rates have reached ws260 even for good quality voyages and with further replacement cargoes expected to arise, the going will remain firm into the next days. The only respite for charterers might be the prospect of the next stems being delayed, but this is likely to prevent rates going much further rather than it threatening an imminent correction to rates.

US Gulf/Latin America

The Americas VLCC market remained steady, with benchmark levels hovering around the $13.5m mark. Tonnage availability stayed tight for February dates, prompting some Charterers to consider extending their search into early March, where additional ballasters from the East may offer some relief. Activity was muted following the US holiday period, with limited visible action on the surface. As the market returned to business, enquiry slowed compared with the momentum seen last week, and most fixing activity appeared to take place quietly under the radar. A small number of fixtures were reported during the week, helping freight levels remain steady. While sentiment in other vessel sizes turned more bullish, this has yet to translate meaningfully into VLCC activity. Overall, the Americas VLCC market closes the week steady but quiet, with direction dependent on whether enquiry improves in the coming days.

North Sea

As we draw to the end of a turbulent week there is plenty to assess for the Aframaxes. Initial bullishness over ballasting TA has been met with the reality of some dire winter weather. Rough calculations indicate there is value in staying this side of the pond and hitting your dates rather than risking the ballast. Most are still bullish that the short term will hold up despite some cargo dates being set back. Those able to snap up anything with safe berthing will likely do so today, otherwise it seems a breather is likely. Levels are just south of WS200, but a couple of cargoes out there are getting very little love. Relets in position want premiums and owners with safe berthing are few and far between.

Crude Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Clean Products

East

Slightly less activity seen over the course of week, partly due to the LR2 market having a very limited supply of ships and the LR1s maybe a touch overpriced come the close of last week. A few TC5 cargoes released early on eased the sentiment of the LR1s and although these ships were quickly put on back on subjects, as the next natural fixing window approaches tonnage is available and as such charterers were happy to sit off and steady the owner’s excitement. TC5 corrected to 55 x ws215 and West at circa $3.5m via cape. Although quiet, the LR2s have seen off market activity as charterers try to cover of the forward window without causing too much excitement in the market. As slight negative correction also on the naphtha runs as TC1 dips towards the 75 x ws200 levels, West is still strong but has also seen a slight drop with $4.6m on subs for a Fujairah/UKC (via Suez). Assess further slight softening in the market next week.

The AG MR market opened the week with firm pace supported by a tight front end of the list. Limited availability of vanilla tonnage allowed rates to firm through midweek, with TC17 reaching 35 x ws300 and TC12 trading around 35 x ws235–240. USG were runs fixed at $2.775m, while X-AG levels traded in the $600k range. Momentum faded toward the end of the week as enquiry slowed and a few front-end failures emerged. By Friday, TC12 eased to 35 x ws227.5, while TC17 went on subs at 35 x ws270 for an LC veg unit, indicating benchmarks closer to 35 x ws275–280. With end-month dates largely covered and fresh ballasters ex-ECI/Spore and Eafr/Safr entering the early-February window, the list is starting to rebuild, pointing to near-term pressure on rates into next week.

UK Continent

In general a rather slow and deflating week ends here for the MRs in the UKC with a real lack of fresh enquiry for the majority, and only replacements keeping the top of the tonnage list ticking over. With USG market also faltering and very few TC2 stems quoted, owners have had to take on a few WAF and South America moves. XUKC still remains competitive with Handies, giving owners a chance to kill some time but in general sentiment is sluggish. That was until Friday reared its head and after a relatively active morning, we see several additional stems quoted this afternoon and now sit with 5+ stems to cover. Weather delays continue to remain a thorn in owners and charterers sides, but with a number of laden vessels arriving end month, we await to see how charterers navigate these moving targets of itineraries.

A week to forget for Handy owners in the North as a sluggish week draws to a close with the market continuing to lack consistent volumes. Majority of NWE eyes have been on TC6 this week with the highs of 30x ws300 paid and some even weighed up the ballast down but with terrible weather in the Bay of Biscay/Portugal area most opted against it in the end. MRs also remain a thorn in the side for Handy owners as a few cargoes have been upsized to 37kt clips. By Friday we have seen a couple UKC/Med cargoes come out of the woodwork and one positive for owners is that the tonnage list still does lack some depth.

Med 

It has been a generally flat week for MRs in the Med with the main talking points being how firm Handy rates have been. This, coupled with a lack of 37kt volumes has meant any natural Med openers have had the option of going short on 30kt clips to kill time. As the week progressed, however, there were signs that the USG rates became negatively pressured and rates began to slip with the onus on how ballast tonnage now responds. We could see this offer some form of stimulation to this MR market in the form of repopulation as well as being a less attractive voyage in turn leading to a small premium being paid ex Med. Moreover, with Med handy rates seeming to correct down, short haul may become less of an option for MR owners leaving them at the mercy of 37kt enquiry. 37x ws135 quiet Med-TA. 

In all it has been a positive week for Handy owners as we opened at the ws200 mark which became a solid floor for them to build from. With bad weather sustained throughout the week, initially plaguing the West-Med first before moving eastward, stressed itineraries and port closures played their part in preventing charterers from gaining a foothold in this market. Grade sensitive and approved tonnage being hard to come by also played a role. There has been a flurry of activity to conclude the week with negative sentiment creeping into this market as rumours of 30 x ws250 on subs ex-CMed circulate. Looking forward it does seem that charterers will get some relief from repopulation, with questions outstanding of how much of an impact will the weather next week have on itineraries? And also, how much inquiry will we see? If there is a smooth return in port practises and any backlogs built up over this week are worked through swiftly, then charterers will start to feel a bit more in control instead of gambling on itineraries. Alternatively, like last week, we could see a downward correction followed by a push on rates should enquiry pick up or replacements be needed. 30 x ws275 seems a fair call going into the weekend.

Clean Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Dirty Products

Handy

Handies in the North got off to a bright start with a couple of early fixtures signalling a firming of rates to WS245 before enquiries slowed down as relets went into programme. Toward the end of the week, enquiries surfaced into a tight list with levels expected to firm up further early into next week toward the WS250 mark. We expect to see a handful of vessels come into the early Feb fixing window come Monday, which could slow momentum; however, we don’t expect them to remain workable for long. Rates look set to rise here.

The Med has seen a week dominated by bad weather, delays and port closures across the board. Enquiry has continued to flow into a tight and uncertain list with rate ideas starting at WS220 before quickly firming up to WS225 early into the week with WS240 on subs but struggling cargoes and uncertain itineraries will likely cause rates to firm to WS245-250 by early next week. Should we see extended delays with further enquiry early into next week, expect to see rates continue to firm here.

MR

MRs in the North have seen levels firm slowly with WS180 fixed at the beginning of the week before tonnage and enquiry dried up. A couple of units are expected to open early February, naturally in the North, which could keep levels firming in a steadier manner for now. We soon expect to see WS185 here. In the Med, owners have seen a similar fate to their Handies cousins despite full-stem activity on the quieter side and remaining underground. We expect to see WS185-190 early into next week as bad weather continues to have its effect on itineraries.

Panamax

Owners in the Panamax market over in the USG and Caribs have enjoyed another week of firming levels as the region remains tight with enquiry flowing. WS350+ looks on the cards next week as we expect to see a lack of supply continue. This is not helped by vessels choosing to stay on the West Coast, where earnings are also healthy, rather than ballasting back through the Panama Canal. Over on this side of the Atlantic, owners’ ideas are firming with rate ideas being pushed toward the WS160-170 mark for runs into the USG, but for the moment, these rates are yet to be fixed.

Dirty Product Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Rates & Bunkers

Clean and Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments – Spot WS and $/day TCE (a)

wk on wk changeJan 22ndJan 15thLast Month*FFA Q1
TD3C VLCC AG-China WS14127112115103
TD3C VLCC AG-China TCE $/day15,750118,500102,750115,00086,250
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC WS-16150166143141
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC TCE $/day-10,25071,00081,25071,00059,750
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC WS32281249207225
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC TCE $/day12,25081,75069,50059,25055,750
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan WS-14203216150 
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan TCE $/day-5,00052,00057,00039,000
TC18 MR USG-Brazil WS-41188229209187
TC18 MR USG-Brazil TCE $/day-7,50022,00029,50029,25020,000
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan WS-15212227167198
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan TCE $/day-4,00038,50042,50031,25033,000
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus WS-2253254230221
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus TCE $/day-50031,00031,50030,00024,500

(a) based on round voyage economics at ‘market’ speed, eco, non-scrubber basis

Bunker Prices ($/tonne)

wk on wk changeJan 22ndJan 15thLast Month*
Rotterdam VLSFO  -12425437386
Fujairah VLSFO  +0444444414
Singapore VLSFO  +16456440423
Rotterdam LSMGO  +18666648581

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