Crossed Wakes

The crude vessel segments have crossed wakes this year — moving in different directions even as they share the same waters. Crude ton-miles softened overall in 2026 to date, though Suezmaxes and Aframaxes picked up share even as VLCCs came under pressure.

VLCC ton-miles fell 14.5% year-on-year over January-July, driven primarily by a sharp decline in Middle Eastern crude export volumes. Lower VLCC utilisation on WAF routes added further drag, as continued weak Chinese buying removed a key long-haul outlet even as WAF cargoes increasingly redirected toward Europe/Med instead. Long-haul USGC-Far East demand partly offset the decline, peaking in May before retreating to near pre-war levels as dwindling SPR inventories and high US refinery utilisation left less crude for export. The Yanbu-East detour, though theoretically ton-mile accretive, has so far seen only scarce fixtures, limiting its offsetting effect.

Actual VLCC ton-miles are likely marginally higher than reported, as dark activity in the Middle East keeps some running unaccounted for in the data. That gap also helps explain why VLCC earnings have remained elevated even as recorded ton-miles fell: with more VLCCs tied up in Middle East STS workarounds and slow steaming, the effective fleet has stayed tighter than the headline ton-mile trend suggests. VLCC earnings now are rangebound at $170,000-200,000k/day. The strong freight rate has, in turn, prompted charterers to pivot toward splitting cargoes onto Suezmaxes where possible, adding to ton-mile gains this year.

Suezmax ton-miles rose 10% over first seven months of this year as the Atlantic basin leant more heavily on the segment across the board. WAF exports utilised more Suezmaxes as more cargoes moved to Europe/Med. Russian crude exports from the West also rose sharply — more crude has been freed up after Ukrainian strikes on refineries, and more volume heading to India — with Suezmax covering most of the increase and the longer India run adding ton-miles. A recent uptick in Sidi Kerir loadings gave Suezmax a further boost as the Red Sea crisis pushed more Saudi barrels to Atlantic refiners, though that’s a shorter run. CPC loadings, however, dipped from their May peak as Black Sea risk hit port ops, before recovering once Ukraine pledged not to target vessels loading there.

Aframax ton-miles rose almost 27% on broader activity across the Atlantic basin. USGC activity firmed via reverse lightering and transatlantic flows to UKC/Med, holding up even as the broader USGC market pulled back. Steady Venezuelan crude flows since the US eased sanctions on the sector in early 2026 also supported mainstream Aframax demand. High TMX export volumes and Aframax’s competitiveness on the eastwards shipments remained steady ton-mile contributors. Aframax utilisation for Russian barrels stayed largely flat despite the rise in export volumes. Despite this sizeable ton-mile increase, TCEs have retreated since April, now hovering around low-$30,000/day and low-$80,000/day for TD14) and TD25 respectively, as continued LR2 dirtying-up kept tonnage loose.

Looking ahead, each crude vessel segment carries a distinct vulnerability, though one common thread runs across all segments: the ongoing pullback in USGC export volumes, which has already faded from May’s peak as SPR inventories draw down and refiners keep utilisation elevated, leaving progressively less crude available for export as the year goes on. This affects both Aframaxes and VLCCs directly — Aframaxes given its heavy reliance on USGC-Atlantic flows, a risk compounded by continued LR2 dirtying-up which keeps adding competing tonnage even as underlying demand softens; and VLCCs, since USGC-Far East volumes have been one of the few factors keeping VLCC ton-miles from collapsing further, meaning any additional decline here will remove one of the segment’s key support factor.

VLCC ton-miles, meanwhile, remain most exposed to Chinese import demand, since China’s imports have stayed well below pre-war levels for most of the year, leaving it the one major buyer with real room to add barrels and boost long-haul demand at scale; this added demand could tighten tonnage supply further — a pool with some tonnage already tied up in Middle East Gulf for STS workarounds — supporting current earnings levels. Middle East developments will determine the scale of that lift: continued disruption would force China further afield for replacement barrels and add long-haul ton-miles, while a resolution would let it revert to shorter-haul Gulf crude, still adding demand but with a smaller ton-mile uplift. Suezmax risk sits mainly in the Black Sea and Europe. CPC exports remain exposed to a risk of further attacks. European autumn maintenance usually cuts crude intake and would normally weigh on Suezmax pull, but strong margins and tight supply this year could see refiners trim or delay turnarounds, keeping intake firmer than the seasonal pattern suggests.

Crude Tanker Ton-mile Demand (Mtm)

Crude Oil

East

The AG/Red Sea VLCC market saw strong upward momentum throughout the week. A steady flow of activity, including business taking place under the radar, gradually reduced the tonnage list and strengthened owners’ position. As the week progressed, fixtures were concluded at increasingly higher levels, with big numbers reported on AG/East runs confirming the firmer trend. With tonnage continuing to disappear and owners firmly in the driving seat, the market now appears to be searching for its ceiling. Attention turns to next week’s enquiry to see whether these elevated levels can be maintained.

The Suezmax market in the East remains firm, with yet another week of high tensions and still no end seemingly in sight. Expect this market to stay steady to firm for the foreseeable future, with the market for Fuj/East hovering around the WS355 mark.

The Asia Aframax market ends the week firm, with a tight tonnage list coupled with steady chartering activity supporting freight rates. New ceilings were established on both short northbound and regional runs, while earnings climbed into the mid-$40,000/day range. Improved returns in the region have begun to attract northbound tonnage to ballast south, rather than conventionally looking across the Pacific for TMX employment, where freight has remained largely subdued by oil relets. Moving into next week, owners remain well positioned to defend current levels, with scope to push higher should another wave of enquiry emerge. We close the week firm, assessing Indo/Up at 80kt × WS200.

West Africa

The WAF VLCC market strengthened significantly over the course of the week. Limited prompt tonnage, combined with the firmer trend across the Atlantic, forced charterers to attract additional ballasters from the East. As activity increased, vessels were gradually taken away, and successive fixtures pushed freight sharply higher. Owners’ confidence continued to build towards the end of the week, leaving sentiment firmly on the upside. It remains to be seen whether enquiry can maintain this momentum and support current levels next week.

On the Suezmaxes, TD20 remains relatively firm. There are reportedly still cargoes to cover for end early dates, which we could see push up rates if owners hold their resolve, but the back end of the week has seen charterers hold back and put pressure on rates. Today we estimate TD20 to be around the WS330 mark.

Mediterranean

TD6 has cooled off a little, with WS550 being repeated, but there is still a limited pool of owners willing to call there, which is keeping this market firm. As more time passes without an attack, we may see more start to get involved again soon, but for now the list is rather restrictive.

In the Med Suezmax market, rates remain firm, with the market for WAF and CPC being so high it is really difficult to convince owners to do short runs in today’s market. Those looking should expect their toes to be held to the fire and will likely struggle to get offers today.

For the Med Aframax sector, with Europe being lighter on availability due to the recent draw on tonnage from the US, owners have felt a consistent firm undertone all week. As gains were realised, the market now posts some +20 points from where we began, and with September’s programme now well under way, opinion among some was that dates were reaching out a bit. Whether this is correct or not is somewhat trivial, although what is more intriguing is that typically this is also a further sign of underlying strength. Heading into next week, the market holds potential for further increment, albeit at least until some replenishment is felt from units returning from the US.

US Gulf/Latin America

The States VLCC market experienced a strong week, with a steady flow of enquiry and fixtures pushing freight progressively higher. Several cargoes were covered throughout the week in the USG and Brazil, tightening the tonnage list and strengthening owners’ confidence, despite some prompt vessels initially becoming available. Momentum continued to build as higher fixtures were reported, leaving owners firmly in control. Attention now turns to outstanding Brazil enquiry and whether the continued flow of cargoes can maintain the current upward momentum into next week.

North Sea

Despite vessels leaving the region — circa 30 in the past two weeks — the market has remained relatively flat. WS200 was the rate at the start of the week, and things have moved very little since then. There is still some optimism from the owners’ side, but growth, as always, is slow compared to its neighbouring markets. We see the North Sea firm into next week, with some upside ahead.

Crude Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Clean Products

East

It was an active week for both LR1 and LR2 East of Suez. LR2s have very much had the steady flow of stems, and with a tight front end, rates have pushed with each fixture. A reported $6.5m for a Duqm/West (via BEM) indicates the push seen.

LR1s haven’t been quite as busy and have very much followed in the wake of the larger ships. That said, a $4.2m on subs for STS Sohar/West (via BEM) is a pleasing improvement for owners on last done. With minimal outstanding cargoes heading into the weekend, owners won’t be fooled into thinking it’s gone quiet. Charterers will be having to play their stems with caution, as with tonnage thinning they could get exposed.

There was a slight uptick in activity this week for the MRs in the Fuj-WCI range, but with the fixing window extending, rates suffered a 10-point drop on Tuesday. After the drop on Sikka TC17 to 35 × WS275, rates have been steady since, thanks to consistent enquiry over the mid to end of the week. With most of the fresh cargoes coming out being off end/early dates, there has been enough tonnage available to charterers for rates to be repeated since then. However, as seen in recent weeks, this is a market of fine margins, and with the list still slim in comparison to the three-month average, it only takes an injection of cargoes early next week for levels to push on again, especially with LRs looking firm.

Inside the AG, the list remains tight, and X-AG runs active, with the majority of vessels still unwilling to transit SOH despite questions being asked. Finally, on to the Red Sea, where rates remain steady as ships continue to be picked off under the radar amid the conflict in the region.

UK Continent

With Europe seemingly (wisely) in import mode again this week, rates remain firmly stuck in the doldrums. Whilst caustic, palm, veg, UCO, naphtha, ULSD and jet-laden tonnage continues to arrive for discharge, and only a small amount of ULSD leaves the region, this over-tonnaged dynamic will keep rates very low. Owners are trying to keep the ships moving, but ultimately short voyages are compounding the issue; the only real chances for recovery are bad weather, increased cargo flow, or both. Some have ballasted to the USG for better returns, and we expect this to continue.

As we saw last week, the UKC Handy sector has been at the mercy of the larger MRs once again, as these ships continue to scramble around for employment, picking up the short-haul runs usually reserved for the 30kt ships. Subsequently, we see rates remain pressured throughout, from 30 × WS180-ish levels, but now down closer to the WS170 mark, with MRs fixing at the pro rata of this. It seems unlikely this momentum/sentiment is to change in the near future.

Med

MR rates in the Med have remained pressured through the week, given how healthy the list has been. Europe being a net importer currently has meant charterers are not short on options as and when they decide to quote. Owners’ options to exit the Med are limited, with short-haul runs a viable time killer — this has somewhat capped off handy rates as a knock-on effect. It seems rates will remain pressured, with the only olive branch being that we anticipate tonnage ballasting up from WAF to take a sharp left turn towards the USG region, which seems to be holding relatively steady for now.

It has been a rather uneventful week for handies in the Med, with rates correcting downwards 10 points from WS175 to WS165. High bunker prices have plagued owners’ TCEs throughout the week, making them stubborn to move on rates, yet the slow game by charterers has forced some owners’ hands in pushing rates downwards. With the weekend restock round the corner, charterers remain in the driving seat here, and with a few stems quoted off end-month dates beyond the natural window, charterers are trying to lock in this bearish sentiment. Owners will be watching and hope this market gets the stimulation needed to claw back some control come Monday.

Clean Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Dirty Products

Handy

The week began on the back of healthy activity reported the previous week, with owners maintaining a firm stance and market expectations around WS340-345. As the week progressed, the natural fixing window remained tight, despite some replenishment appearing for third-decade dates. However, this additional tonnage was considered too far forward to materially impact owners’ confidence, with sentiment supported around WS345-350. Towards the end of the week, activity picked up once again, resulting in vessels being clipped away from the list. Reported levels remained largely unchanged around WS345. Looking ahead, further tonnage replenishment is expected into next week, though not in sufficient numbers to alter the overall market balance. As such, sentiment is expected to remain broadly steady, with rates continuing to hover around WS345.

With activity carried over from the previous week, several outstanding stems continued to circulate. As a result, sentiment opened on a firm footing, with owners expected to target levels around WS370-375. As the week progressed, we saw some CPP vessels considering dirtying up, with the current spread some 200 worldscale points, although not all owners considering are fully committing as of yet. The list appeared reasonably populated at first glance, although the presence of several vintage units and vessels carrying premium histories made the market less workable than headline numbers suggested. Combined with suspected under-the-radar activity, this continued to support a firm market tone, with expectations centred around WS370, although these levels were not fully confirmed. However, a slower end to the week saw repeated fixtures reported around WS365, suggesting resistance to higher levels. With the week drawing to a close and third-decade replenishment looking increasingly likely, sentiment has settled into a softer/steadier pattern, with market expectations around WS360-365.

MR

The week started with limited enquiry across both the UKC and Med MR sectors, although tight availability and ongoing support from the Handy market left owners in a firm position. In the UKC, the supply picture remained relatively constrained, with expectations centred around WS265-270 should a meaningful enquiry emerge. In the Med, continued Handy strength supported owners’ ideas around WS275-280. As the week progressed, little fresh activity surfaced, with workable units spread across varying dates and some vessels seemingly being absorbed through Handy stems, gradually reducing available tonnage. Despite this, another week passed without a well-publicised test, leaving true levels to be determined.

Panamax

We started the week with expectations of further firming, with rates around WS452.5. As the week progressed, the list tightened as vessels secured employment into TA and South American trades, pushing levels towards WS470. By week’s end, continued tender activity and limited availability supported further gains to around WS472.5. While sentiment remained firm, there was an increasing sense that the market may be approaching a near-term ceiling.

With the CBS-USG market continuing to strengthen, we saw owners encouraged to reposition vessels back into the region rather than hold out for backhaul opportunities, with rates expected around WS185. As the week progressed, a noticeable amount of Panamax tonnage entered the market across second- and third-decade dates. The stabilisation of the Aframax market helped underpin sentiment in the Panamax sector, leaving rate expectations largely unchanged at WS185-195. Ending the week, much of the prompt tonnage has secured onward employment, leaving the next wave of availability concentrated towards the start of next month. Looking ahead, sentiment is expected to remain steady, with rates around WS185-195.

Dirty Product Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Rates & Bunkers

Clean and Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments – Spot WS and $/day TCE (a)

wk on wk changeAug 20thAug 13thLast Month*FFA Q3
TD3C VLCC AG-China WS91570479387492
TD3C VLCC AG-China TCE $/day105,250614,500509,250401,250516,500
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC WS102329227228261
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC TCE $/day64,500175,250110,750110,500123,750
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC WS-22328349443318
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC TCE $/day-8,75089,75098,500132,75079,250
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan WS19537518499 
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan TCE $/day6,500153,250146,750140,250
TC18 MR USG-Brazil WS46281235304264
TC18 MR USG-Brazil TCE $/day8,00032,75024,75035,75026,500
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan WS32566534524453
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan TCE $/day8,000116,000108,000105,25085,750
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus WS6262256277248
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus TCE $/day1,25025,25024,00027,25022,000

(a) based on round voyage economics at ‘market’ speed, eco, non-scrubber basis

Bunker Prices ($/tonne)

wk on wk changeAug 20thAug 13thLast Month*
Rotterdam VLSFO  +18674657690
Fujairah VLSFO  +20829810836
Singapore VLSFO  -10814824821
Rotterdam LSMGO  +4612841,2381,230

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