Gibson Weekly Projects Report – 10 April

Dirty

Are the Straits of Hormuz open or closed post-ceasefire? In truth, nominally open — but still effectively closed, depending on who you are and how brave you feel.

There was a brief flicker of spot enquiry immediately after the ceasefire, enough to suggest some were willing to test the water. Little, if anything, stuck. Where Owners did show, they held firm at punchy levels. The headlines will point to “remarkable” rates, but the reality is that very few, if any, fixtures have actually been concluded.

Elsewhere — with the usual caveat that we’re only ever one headline away from a shift — the market appears to be moving into a familiar post-shock phase. The inefficiencies created by conflict are gradually being ironed out as conditions normalise. Tonnage has moved West, as expected, and that is beginning to weigh on forward sentiment.

Spot is starting to soften in places. Not sharply, but directionally the move is clear. Numbers achieved in the immediate aftermath are already looking stretched against today’s reality.

Time charter tells a more nuanced story. Front-end demand has turned a touch hesitant, reflecting the softer tone on spot. Further out, however, demand remains tangible. LR2s and Aframaxes continue to see genuine five-year interest, while three-to-five-year discussions are still circulating for Suezmaxes and VLCCs. Owners, understandably, are looking to lock in forward strength while the window remains open.

For now, activity is thin. Geopolitics is keeping both sides cautious. Owners are holding out for a meaningful premium — at least through to the conclusion of the Easter holidays – or the next headline. Until that gap closes, it’s a market that feels more talked than traded.

Crude 1 Year TC Rates ($/day)

Clean

All the hyperbole to describe how firm the Atlantic CPP market has been exhausted in recent weeks, so lets let the numbers do the talking. Up to 12 mos on a prompt eco MR at near 40K levels is still being bid and concluded. East TCEs are starting to improve on the back of solid MR spot activity and therefore it is unsurprising that we have noted less MR ballasters for the Atlantic ex Far East. East Short TC & East/West Palms trips are nudging into the 30s now whilst MR newbuilds with slightly forward delivery are being notably discounted at mid-high 20s for 12 mos. The pure LR2 TC market remains almost non-existent with Hormuz still slammed shut – almost all Charterers still demand a DPP option given the price tags on ships offered, and it remains to be seen how much longer this phenomenon will last.

Clean 1 Year TC Rates ($/day)

Time Charter Rates

Clean Fixtures

Tanker S&P

Sale and purchase activity remained robust despite asset prices approaching all-time highs, reflecting continued confidence among shipowners in the tanker segment. Demand for older crude tonnage remains particularly strong, with several 18–19-year-old Suezmax and Aframax vessels transacted over the past week. The “SUEZ ENCHANTED” (159,423 dwt/blt 2007, Hyundai Ulsan, S. Korea) is reportedly sold for $48 million, whilst CMB-Tech have disposed of their oldest suezmaxes, the “CAP FELIX” (158,765 dwt,blt 2008, Samsung, S. Korea) and “SIENA” (149,847 dwt, blt 2007 Universal, Japan) for a combined $95 million.

The clean tanker segment also saw firm activity, with Ardmore achieving $35.5 million for a 2014-built MR2, surpassing recent benchmarks set by Scorpio’s 2015-built units at $35 million. Additionally, Gesco’s “JAG PRAKASH” (47,848 dwt, blt 2007 STX, S.Korea) is reportedly sold for $17.5 million, potentially establishing a new benchmark for ~20-year-old MR tonnage                                                                                         

Recent Sales

Tanker S&P Values ($m)

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