Trumping 2025

After a chaotic 2025 dominated by tariffs, trade wars, actual wars and sanctions, it seemed hard to imagine 2026 could trump the chaos of last year. Yet, that thesis was proven wrong after just three days with the US President using 2025 as a warmup lap.

Capture Maduro!

After applying pressure via a naval blockade and military buildup, on the 3rd of January, the US undertook a stunning operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro. Since then, a combination of sanctions relief, policy reform and foreign investment has seen Venezuelan crude/DPP exports steadily recovering to reach a 6-year high. With Venezuela accounting for 8% of dark fleet employment last year, mainstream tankers have benefitted from a structural shift. Whilst it is unclear whether the country’s production will be impacted by this week’s earthquake, the country’s reopening has added to the tanker market momentum seen for the year to date.

Consolidate to dominate

Although the consolidation story started in 2025, the VLCC market really began to feel the impact of consolidation in the first few months of 2026 where aggressive chartering strategies propelled freight rates to the highest levels seen since the floating storage play of early 2020.
With just 10 operators now controlling 57% of the VLCC fleet, compared with less than 50% last year, the markets will remain volatile as operators increasingly use their scale to control tonnage supply.

Bombs away

Perhaps emboldened by the success of the Venezuela operation, at the end of February, Trump took his greatest gamble yet triggering an event which had been debated and feared for decades. Yet few thought the Straits of Hormuz would ever be closed, and if it was, surely the might of the US military would swiftly reopen it? With the Strait closed, and no one seemingly willing to pay the human and military cost to reopen it, oil markets were thrown into chaos. Tanker rates set new records (both theoretically and physically) as traders scrambled to secure cargoes from anywhere they could. Physical oil prices hit record levels and for a short period of time, freight rates became largely irrelevant. However, the oil markets showed remarkable resilience, aided by high oil stocks, both at sea and on land prior to the war, an IEA coordinated 400mbbl emergency release, Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverting cargoes via pipelines to avoid Hormuz and a reduction in demand, notably in Asia. Just as oil supply started to look critical it became apparent that more oil was gradually escaping Hormuz in coordination with the US military, the UAE and Oman. Finally, this month, with the US and Iran signing an interim peace deal, Hormuz reopened and vessel transits gradually increased, for now staving off the prospect of inventories running dry and oil prices setting new records.

Iran back in the black?

The deal to reopen Hormuz saw Iran earn temporary sanctions relief opening up the prospect for Iranian oil to return to the mainstream tanker markets, and paving the way for an eventual shift to mainstream tankers. For now, the UK, EU and UN sanctions may prohibit this, yet the prospect of mainstream tankers gaining access to the Iranian market moves ever closer.

OPEXIT

In 2025, much debate surrounded whether OPEC would once again have to rein in production to prevent oil prices crashing in what most analysts predicted would be a heavily oversupplied oil market. Whilst that argument evaporated following the closure of Hormuz, it wasn’t enough to deter the UAE from wanting to free itself from the shackles of quotas. Now, with Hormuz flows resuming, UAE crude exports are already surging, averaging at record levels of 3.6mbd so far this month. Reports have suggested that Iraq too may be considering its own future in the group.

Robot Wars

With all eyes on Iran and the world in the midst of an unprecedented energy crisis, Russia initially benefitted not just from higher oil prices, but also from sanctions waivers issued by the United States, allowing India to temporarily increase Russian imports, alongside its first Iranian cargo since 2019. Yet despite one of the largest energy crises in history, the EU issued its 20th sanctions package, doubling down on efforts to weaken Russia.

However, the real pressure on Russia came not from sanctions, but from Ukraine’s battlefield effectiveness, particularly its growing success in targeting Russian refineries with long range drones. With Russian refineries under constant attack, fuel shortages have hit the country, leading Russian CPP exports to a record low. Conversely, crude exports hit a record high in May as lower refinery activity forced higher crude exports. Now, with the oil price softening, product exports under pressure, and growing Ukrainian capabilities, the pressure on Putin continues to grow. Despite all of this, it remains hard to envisage an end to the war.

Regulatory Relapse?

After all the drama last December, with the US and its allies successfully blocking the IMOs Net Zero Framework (NZF), the IMO appeared to make progress again this year. However, even if an amended version of the NZF is approved, the US and its allies may still threaten sanctions on anyone enforcing it against US interests. Nevertheless, in a best-case scenario, the NZF would not come into force until 2029 at the earliest, albeit unlikely. So, for shipowners, the wait for regulatory certainty goes on.

Orders Up!

Despite all the geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty, shipowners have shown very little hesitation in putting their money where their mouth is. Total tanker orders >25kdwt have already exceeded last year’s total. 2026 is already a record year for VLCC orders, with half the year still left. Overall, the total orderbook stands at 21%, ranging from 35% for VLCCs to just 13% for the LR1s. Suezmaxes have also seen heavy investment, with the orderbook having risen to 30%. Just like the IMO NZF, investment in alternative fuels has also stalled. Less than 5% of tanker orders placed so far this year have been for dual fuel or dual fuel ready, compared to 11% last year and 19% in 2023. In terms of fleet growth, new deliveries from shipyards reached a 16 year high over the last 6 months, heavily weighted towards Afra/LR2s and MRs. Conversely, scrapping remained exceptionally low, with just 8 tankers sold for scrap, vs. 20 for the same period of 2025.

Price Pressure

Inflationary pressure, yard capacity and strong spot markets continue to influence newbuild prices. Prices for newbuilds are up on average 5% this year, depending on the size, whilst modern secondhand values gained 15% as exceptional spot markets and long shipyard lead times kept prices elevated.

Fasten Your Seatbelts

The second half of the year looks as equally uncertain as the first. Peace in the Middle East is far from guaranteed, whilst the War in Ukraine rages on. Tariffs and trade wars have been put on the backburner but could reemerge. Fleet growth is rising whilst scrapping remains low, yet the process to rebuild oil inventories could help sustain higher fleet growth into 2027.

Tanker deliveries (no.)

Crude Oil

East

The AG and Red Sea VLCC market experienced a volatile week, driven by developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The market opened on a firm footing as uncertainty over regional developments supported owners’ resistance despite healthy tonnage availability. Enquiry gradually improved during the first half of the week, tightening the list and pushing rates higher. Sentiment shifted sharply later in the week, however, with a fixture concluding 100 points below the previous last done, signalling the start of a correction. By Friday charterers had regained the upper hand, with freight continuing to ease significantly and participants watching closely to see how much further the market may soften. Lower levels could encourage a pickup in enquiry over the coming days.

VLCC sentiment in AG market came under renewed pressure this week, weighing on Suezmaxes, with charterers adopting a more measured approach despite a handful of under-the-radar fixtures. Rates remain subdued overall as participants continue to assess the outlook for transit through the Strait, with uncertainty still limiting any meaningful shift in sentiment.

Supported by tightening end-June/early-July tonnage availability, the Asian Aframax market remains broadly steady with upward momentum this week. First-half July cargoes emerged slowly and in limited volumes, but owners held firm on pushing rates higher amid the tonnage tightness. Further upward adjustments are expected for upcoming stems, though follow-through will depend on activity in the week ahead. We assess the Indo-Up route at WS160, subject to market testing. On the TMX side, ample second-half July cargoes prompted charterers to fix several suitable eastbound open vessels privately, absorbing a fair amount of available supply. Rates remain relatively stable, but sustained cargo releases could lend additional upside support to the TD28 route.

West Africa

The WAF VLCC market started the week with firm sentiment, supported by elevated freight levels and limited prompt tonnage, while charterers needed to attract additional ballasters from the East. Activity remained relatively limited throughout, with most outstanding cargoes finding coverage and little fresh enquiry emerging. As the AG market corrected, sentiment in WAF also softened, with freight beginning to come under downward pressure. A failed fixture toward the end of the week reinforced the weaker tone, and a fresh market test will now be needed to establish current levels.
The WAF Suezmax week opened on a firm note, supported by a healthy flow of enquiry and additional demand from Brazil. The natural window tightened quickly, allowing owners to gain ground on rates. Momentum faded slightly as the week progressed, with tonnage gradually replenishing and softer VLCC sentiment beginning to weigh on owners’ expectations. For now the market appears rangebound, though charterers may look to test sentiment when trading resumes on Monday.

Mediterranean

The CPC Suezmax market began the week on a relatively subdued footing as attention remained firmly on WAF and Brazil. As the Atlantic basin strengthened, enquiry gradually filtered into the Black Sea, where charterers were met by an increasingly tight position list. Owners’ ideas quickly firmed, with offers circulating around WS300 against a latest done of WS275. Elsewhere, both WAF and the USG began to plateau toward the back end of the week, leaving the market finely balanced heading into next week.

Med Aframaxes appeared to suffer something of a disconnect with the wider market this week, as surrounding asset classes rallied off the back of the potential easing of disruptions in the Middle East. Med Aframaxes, however, buckled under the strain of excess capacity and limited cargo opportunity. With this setting the trend, levels have been progressively tested down between deals, and by the end of the week rates had dipped into the WS140s for a healthy flat rate, though some resilience has been seen with subsequent negotiations landing back in the WS150s. Forward anticipation for this market now looks entirely dependent on wider factors — take the time to look at where we were this time last year and you will quickly see we are at almost similar levels, i.e. back to pre-conflict levels.

US Gulf/Latin America

The States VLCC market remained relatively quiet throughout the week. Early on, owners maintained a firm stance, supported by healthy interest in longer-haul voyages and a balanced tonnage position, while Petrobras activity continued to provide useful market guidance. As freight corrected in the Middle East, however, sentiment gradually softened across the Atlantic. Although activity remained limited, recent market quotes helped establish new freight levels and improve price discovery. The week closed with rates under downward pressure, and charterers may be encouraged to step out with additional cargoes should softer levels persist.

North Sea

Swings and roundabouts for Aframaxes in the North this week, with a decent-looking start flattening out as cherry-picked tonnage and ballasters kept things in check. Sentiment has been flat-lining somewhat, with comparisons made to the USG and East but little positive growth as yet. In the near term we can expect fixing to hold in the low WS140s, with a little more optimism over the coming weeks.

Crude Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Clean Products

East

A more positive end to the week for the LRs in the Middle East. Signs are slowly looking more positive and the level of enquiry has certainly increased. That said, the front end of both lists is building and there is an abundance of early tonnage. A fresh test for TC5 ex Duqm at 55 × WS235 is very much a positive note on which to close the week. With rumours of $10m on subs for Ruwais/West — if correct — there is a sign that, for a premium, we could slowly start to see more stems coming into the market next week.

A busy week for MRs in the Middle East on the back of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a growing number of owners now willing to transit the area. TC17 started the week at WS300 for both Sikka and Sohar loadings, while the Red Sea also saw activity, with East Africa/South Africa runs fixing at WS400 and westbound voyages trading around the $1.7-1.8m levels, alongside some off-market X-AG activity. Mid-week saw the highlight fixture of the week, with an AG-USG voyage fixing just below $9m, while TC17 experienced some volatility and New Mangalore/Singapore traded at WS300. The week ended with TC17 on subs at WS335 ex-Sikka and WS360 for a Sohar loading, while WS360 was also reported for a Sikka/Singapore run. With all eyes now on the expected increase in cargo volumes from the AG next week, rates are expected to push higher given the short tonnage list in the area.

UK Continent

A week in which tonnage started to swamp the cargoes. With a WAF cargo seeing six offers, the base market and surrounding differentials have taken a hit this week. Even with the TA arb open there was not enough action, and 37 × WS120 is on subs TA. WAF differentials have closed to +30 points and the demurrage rate is creeping down through the low $30s. All in all, a week where rates drifted south across the board.


With the larger-cubic MR rates coming under some pressure, some units decided to take more cross-UKC stems out, removing a lot of the volume this week. This has had the inevitable effect of rates drifting down, though on a positive note they remain stronger than the Med. There is now an additional $10k cost for UK port calls, however, so perhaps UKC rates will remain marginally above the Med.

Med

The story continues for MRs in the Med, as volumes remain stunted with persistent oversupply of tonnage holding sentiment hostage for the time being. A fresh test sees rates correct down to WS130 Med-TA and WS170 Med-WAF. As expected, differentials have narrowed in line with limited fixing activity and softer TA rates. Owners will continue to eye alternative runs as long as the USG market is weak, despite the TA arb rumoured to be open. A point of note is the complete export ban ex Russia, meaning previous premium players are looking for alternative runs, with WAF the likely play — which could potentially feed the negative sentiment caused by the oversupply of tonnage as a whole.


In all it has been a steady week for Med Handies. At the start it felt that, given the persisting soft sentiment, there was more to gain here for charterers, but the picture has been clear regarding bunker rates and port costs for the majority of owners. The returns are not viable should rates dip below the WS170 mark, and we have therefore seen owners dig their heels in. Nonetheless, with a healthy list throughout, owners have not been in a position to pressure charterers, hence the market being stuck at the current floor of WS170.

Clean Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Dirty Products

Handy

An overall more positive week for Handy owners in the North, as enquiry surfaced relatively early and helped to clear some of the build-up. Ships were fixed between the WS222.5-WS225 mark before enquiry slowed again toward the end of the week. A couple of MR units remain prompt and ready to work, which will surely compete for Handy stems as their idle days begin to rack up. Once these have cleared, however, next-up naturally placed tonnage looks tighter, which could create a steady to firmer feel, though enquiry will need to get off to a fast start.


The Med has seen a relatively slow week, with enquiry sluggish to surface throughout. That said, a number of ships have been clipped away under the radar, helping to shorten the list as a whole. Levels began the week at WS227.5, which repeated twice, both for WMed loadings. Under-the-radar fixing then clipped away a handful of units before WS220 was tested for a Central Med load. Prompt ships remain workable across the Med, and we expect replenishment to pad out the list further come Monday. Whether these levels can hold remains to be seen.

MR

Not the week MR owners would have hoped for, with a fresh test needed in both regions. Idle days mount for some in the North as the Handies saw most of the love this week. Last done of WS185 has been the guide, but that deal is some weeks old now, and we expect next done levels around the WS170 mark. Similar to the North, the Med needs a fresh test as the Handies soften, and we expect a similar trend with the MRs. Tonnage is there and ready to work, and we think next done also lies around the 45 × WS170 mark for an XMed run.

Panamax

TD21 has seen a steady week, with the list ticking over between the WS215-220 mark as enquiry clips away supply. Recent Jones Act waiver business has helped keep the list balanced, though some owners are holding back their positions, perhaps masking the true number of workable units. Local Aframaxes are tightening, which could help the Panamaxes with some positive trickle-down, though this remains to be seen. In the UKC and Med there is little action, with availability scarce. Rate ideas still hold at 55 × WS150 to the USG from both the Cont and Med for now, though these ideas are mostly theory as things stand.

Dirty Product Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Rates & Bunkers

Clean and Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments – Spot WS and $/day TCE (a)

wk on wk changeJune 25thJune 18thLast Month*FFA Q2
TD3C VLCC AG-China WS-83319402403425
TD3C VLCC AG-China TCE $/day-93,000330,500423,500420,000445,750
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC WS81239158187205
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC TCE $/day54,250123,00068,75084,25094,500
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC WS-5192197225310
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC TCE $/day75044,00043,25051,00082,500
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan WS8509502530 
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan TCE $/day4,000147,750143,750150,500
TC18 MR USG-Brazil WS-137188325205373
TC18 MR USG-Brazil TCE $/day-22,50018,50041,00017,00049,250
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan WS4528524571565
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan TCE $/day2,250110,000107,750116,750116,000
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus WS-13274286324326
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus TCE $/day-1,00029,75030,75035,25037,250

(a) based on round voyage economics at ‘market’ speed, eco, non-scrubber basis

Bunker Prices ($/tonne)

wk on wk changeJune 25thJune 18thLast Month*
Rotterdam VLSFO  -60576636732
Fujairah VLSFO  -16610271,193907
Singapore VLSFO  -50685735818
Rotterdam LSMGO  -1638541,0171,184

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